Communicating About Bioenergy Sustainability

Defining and measuring sustainability of bioenergy systems are difficult because the systems are complex, the science is in early stages of development, and there is a need to generalize what are inherently context-specific enterprises. These challenges, and the fact that decisions are being made now, create a need for improved communications among scientists as well as between scientists and decision makers. In order for scientists to provide information that is useful to decision makers, they need to come to an agreement on how to measure and report potential risks and benefits of diverse energy alternatives in a way that allows decision makers to compare options. Scientists also need to develop approaches that contribute information about problems and opportunities relevant to policy and decision making. The need for clear communication is especially important at this time when there is a plethora of scientific papers and reports and it is difficult for the public or decision makers to assess the merits of each analysis. We propose three communication guidelines for scientists whose work can contribute to decision making: (1) relationships between the question and the analytical approach should be clearly defined and make common sense; (2) the information should be presented in a manner that non-scientists can understand; and (3) the implications of methods, assumptions, and limitations should be clear. The scientists’ job is to analyze information to build a better understanding of environmental, cultural, and socioeconomic aspects of the sustainability of energy alternatives. The scientific process requires transparency, debate, review, and collaboration across disciplines and time. This paper serves as an introduction to the papers in the special issue on “Sustainability of Bioenergy Systems: Cradle to Grave” because scientific communication is essential to developing more sustainable energy systems. Together these four papers provide a framework under which the effects of bioenergy can be assessed and compared to other energy alternatives to foster sustainability.     

Identifying hydrologically sensitive areas: bridging the gap between science and application

Researchers have noted that current water quality protection strategies, like nutrient management plans, lack a sound hydrological underpinning for pollutant transport processes. This is especially true for areas like the northeastern U.S. where copious research has shown that variable source area hydrology largely governs runoff generation. The goal of this study was to develop a scientifically justified method to identify the locations that generate overland flow. Furthermore, this methodology must be computationally simple enough that it can be utilized or incorporated into nutrient management plans and other established water quality tools. We specifically tested the reliability of the 'distance from a stream,'D(s), and the 'topographic index,'lambda, to predict areas with a high propensity for generating overland flow, i.e. hydrologically sensitive areas (HSA). HSAs were defined by their probability of generating runoff, P(sat), based on 30 year simulations using a physically based hydrological model. Using GIS, each location's P(sat) was correlated with D(s) and lambda. We used three Delaware Co., NY watersheds in the New York City watershed system with areas varying in size from 1.6 to 37 km2 and with forested and agricultural land uses. The topographic index gave stronger, more regionally consistent correlations with P(sat) than did D(s). Equations correlating lambda and P(sat) for each month are presented and can be used to estimate hydrological sensitivity in the region surrounding our study watersheds, i.e. in Delaware Co. This work is currently being incorporated into an Internet Mapping System to facilitate user-friendly, on-line identification of HSAs.     

To beg or to freeze: multimodal sensory integration directs behavior in a tadpole

Effective coordination of behaviors such as foraging and avoiding predators requires an assessment of cues provided by other organisms. Integrating cues from multiple sensory modalities may enhance the assessment. We studied cue integration by tadpoles of Oophaga pumilio, which live in small arboreal water pools. In this species, mothers periodically visit their tadpoles and feed them with unfertilized eggs. When mothers visit, tadpoles beg conspicuously by vibrating until fed. However, animals other than mother frogs including potential predators may visit water pools. Thus, when a visitor appears, tadpoles must use visitor cues to decide whether to beg or to remain inactive to avoid predation. To elucidate the cues that prompt these behaviors, we videotaped behavior of O. pumilio tadpoles in response to isolated and multimodal cues. Tadpoles swam more when exposed to visual or visual and chemical cues of adult O. pumilio but only exhibited begging when exposed to visual, chemical, and tactile cues together. Visual, chemical, and tactile cues from either male or female adult O. pumilio stimulated swimming and begging, but the same cues from similarly sized heterospecific frogs did not. Lastly, tadpoles exposed to a potential predator did not beg and swam less than tadpoles with no stimulus. Together, these findings suggest that O. pumilio tadpoles use multimodal cues to modulate swimming behavior accordingly in the presence of egg provisioners, predators, and other visitors and that tadpole begging is induced by multimodal cues of conspecific frogs such that tactile and perhaps chemical cues supplement visual cues.     

Handling covariates subject to limits of detection in regression

In the environmental health sciences, measurements of toxic exposures are often constrained by a lower limit called the limit of detection (LOD), with observations below this limit called non-detects. Although valid inference may be obtained by excluding non-detects in the estimation of exposure effects, this practice can lead to substantial reduction in power to detect a significant effect, depending on the proportion of censoring and the closeness of the effect size to the null value. Therefore, a variety of methods have been commonly used in the environmental science literature to substitute values for the non-detects for the purpose of estimating exposure effects, including ad hoc values such as ${LOD/2, LOD/\sqrt{2}}$ and LOD. Another method substitutes the expected value of the non-detects, i.e., E[X|X ≤?LOD] but this requires that the inference be robust to mild miss-specifications in the distribution of the exposure variable. In this paper, we demonstrate that the estimate of the exposure effect is extremely sensitive to ad-hoc substitutions and moderate distribution miss-specifications under the conditions of large sample sizes and moderate effect size, potentially leading to biased estimates. We propose instead the use of the generalized gamma distribution to estimate imputed values for the non-detects, and show that this method avoids the risk of distribution miss-specification among the class of distributions represented by the generalized gamma distribution. A multiple imputation-based procedure is employed to estimate the regression parameters. Compared to the method of excluding non-detects, the proposed method can substantially increase the power to detect a significant effect when the effect size is close to the null value in small samples with moderate levels of censoring (?≤ 50%), without compromising the coverage and relative bias of the estimates.     

Population structure of the planktonic copepod Calanus pacificus in the North Pacific Ocean

The pelagic copepod Calanus pacificus ranges nearly continuously across temperate-boreal regions of the North Pacific Ocean and is currently divided into three subspecies—C. pacificus oceanicus, C. pacificus californicus, C. pacificus pacificus—based on subtle morphological differences and geographic location. The relation between geography and genetic differentiation was examined for 398 C. pacificus individuals sampled from six widely distributed locations across the North Pacific, including an open ocean site and coastal sites on both sides of the North Pacific basin. For each individual copepod, the DNA sequence was determined for a 421-bp region of the mitochondrial coxI gene (mtCOI). A total of sixty-three different mtCOI sequences, or haplotypes, were detected, with a sequence divergence between haplotypes of 0.2–3.1%. The number and distribution of haplotypes varied with sampling location; 12 haplotypes were distributed across multiple sampling locations, and 51 occurred at only one location. Five genetically distinct populations were detected based on F _ST values. Haplotype minimum spanning networks, nucleotide divergence and F _ST values indicated that individuals from coastal sites in the North Pacific Ocean were more closely related to each other than to individuals from the open ocean site at Station P. These results provide genetic support for the designation of two subspecies—a coastal subspecies that consists of what is currently referred to as C. p. pacificus and C. p. californicus and an open ocean subspecies C. p. oceanicus. This work also indicates that planktonic copepods with potentially high dispersal capacity can develop genetically structured populations in the absence of obvious geographic barriers between proximate locales within an ocean basin.     

Variation along the shy–bold continuum in extremophile fishes (<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Poecilia mexicana</Emphasis>, <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Poecilia sulphuraria</Emphasis>)

One potential trade-off that bold individuals face is between increased predation risks and gains in resources. Individuals experiencing high predation and hungry individuals (or individuals with low body condition) are predicted to show increased boldness. We examined one behavioral trait previously reported to be associated with boldness (the time individual fish needed to emerge from shelter) in various populations of mollies (Poecilia spp.). Our study system included several southern Mexican surface streams with high piscine predation and high food availability, sulfidic surface streams with high avian predation, in which the inhabiting fish show reduced body condition, and a sulfidic cave, where predation and body condition are low. Our comparison revealed very short times to emerge from the start box in populations from non-sulfidic streams. In sulfidic habitats (whether surface or cave), it took individual Poecilia mexicana considerably longer to emerge from the start box, and the same difference was also found in an independent comparison between P. mexicana and the closely related, highly sulfide-adapted Poecilia sulphuraria. Fish reared under common garden conditions (in the absence of predators and hydrogen sulfide) showed intermediate boldness scores to the extremes observed in the field. Our data thus indicate that (a) boldness is shaped by environmental conditions/experiential effects, but is not heritable, (b) predation affects boldness in the predicted direction, but (c) low body condition leads to reduced boldness. Extremophile Poecilia spp. spend most of their time surfacing to survive under sulfidic and hypoxic conditions, which exposes them to increased levels of predations, but the fish forage on the bottom. Hence, in this system, increased boldness does not increase foraging success. We argue that energy limitation favors reducing energetically costly behaviors, and exploring novel environments may be just one of them.